Sargasso - Info on Hurricane models

We could make a collection of all data on hurricane models here.

I found the Wikipedia site for hurricane and tropical storm models (link below). First of all, it looks like they have been running these models since the 70's. They do keep track of the errors in prediction for various time frames. In all cases, there seems to be a constant improvement every decade. Just recently they are looking at a time frame of 120 hours out.

"There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic,[1] and two primary types of forecasts, track and intensity."

My guess would be that the statistical models are based solely on previous storm tracks while the dynamical models try to predict what the storm is going to do based on the physics of the atmosphere at that time.

Many of the models use supercomputers due to the large amount of data.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model

The following link give a brief description of all of the hurricanes and tropical storms that impacted Delaware for the past 150 or so years. Note in 1904 a tropical cyclone produced 100 mph wind gusts in Lewes!

http://www.midatlantichurricanes.com/Delaware.html

Andreas: Excellent start, ye are gathering the information on how this is actually done professionally, what the actual risks and impacts have been in the past, and how we may apply it to Delaware

Chris: While the models are usually in agreement, there can still be significant error:

Ernesto2006modelspread.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/fd/Ernesto2006modelspread.png
If you look, the track that goes to the east of Florida is the actual track of the storm. All of the models predicted that the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
Andreas: Again, excellent, but how and why are certain segments of this coast presently being evacuated because of Ike and other segments are not? This is very much in the news right now, so you can actually follow this. The question still stands, what should the Sussex County Emergency officials do should they have this information for our coast, say? What else is there to the story of predicting? What do you need to know as this strength 2-3 hurricane approaches the coast?

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